With the delta variant emerging this past summer, Israel became concerned about the overall protection the vaccine provides, and its success rate among the population. In late August 2021, Israel released a study on the effectiveness of the BioNTech and Pfizer COVID-19 vaccine on a population of 800,000 people. Along with reports of decreasing effectiveness of the vaccine, the study focused on evaluating whether natural immunity or immunization leads to better protection against the virus.
The study poses a crucial question. Is the vaccine the solution to the pandemic?
Virus cases continued to rise even after Israel faced record numbers in terms of case prevalence. There was a low of 20 cases a day recorded in late May 2021, and a test positivity rate less than 0.05%. In June and July, cases increased among those who were vaccinated, leading people to question the validity of the vaccine’s protection.
The preprint of the study was published by physician Tal Patalon and his colleagues, concluding that protection from COVID-19 during June and July 2021 noticeably decreased, despite 78% of the population over the age of 12 fully vaccinated. With Israel’s impressive public health programs and health maintenance organizations, the uptick in delta variant cases was quite surprising.
The retrospective and observational study compared three groups: individuals who were fully vaccinated with two doses of the BioNTech/Pfizer mRNA vaccine, people who were previously infected but not vaccinated, and those who received only one dose of the vaccine.
The study concluded that the BioNTech/Pfizer vaccine had a thirteenfold increased risk for a delta variant infection, when compared to people who had previously contracted the virus or received vaccines in January and February 2021.
People who had the virus during one of the earlier waves in spring of 2021 were less likely to become infected by the delta variant, compared to people who were fully vaccinated by Pfizer Inc. and BioNTech SE.
The New York Times published an article written by David Leonhardt touching on Israel’s study and questioning the validity of the data. Leonhardt admits the results are straightforward, but the difference in groups in terms of demographics and socioeconomic status is a large indicator of the results. “The first Israelis to have received the vaccine tended to be more affluent and educated. By coincidence, these same groups later were among the first exposed to the Delta variant, perhaps because they were more likely to travel,” states Leonhardt.
Leonhardt’s hypothetical and anecdotal reasoning does not compare to the peer reviewed study of 800,000 people conducted by Israel. The use of the scientific method outweighs Leonhardt’s extrapolations and assumption that the results of the study were based on factors not measured in the study.
In February 2021, NPR’s Morning Edition did a segment on the efficacy of COVID-19 vaccines and the possibility of mutants. According to Paul Bieniasz, a Howard Hughes investigator for Rockefeller University, vaccines “serve as sort of a breeding ground for the virus to acquire new mutations.” With the introduction of a vaccine, it opens the door for new strands.
The Washington Post published an article following Israel’s release of the study in August, touching on people’s doubts about the success rates. Writer Aaron Blake states, “Just because a variant emerges that renders the vaccines less effective doesn’t mean those vaccines weren’t effective in the first place; it means this is a fast-changing pandemic that will require nimble scientists.” The same could be said about the masks, the quarantines, the capacity regulations, the social distancing, and the list goes on. In other words, just because a study exposes the possibility of vaccinations being less effective, does not mean they should be held back. We do not need “nimble” scientists, we need the truth.
According to the Health Ministry in Israel, since June 6 the effectiveness fell to 64% which applies to both infection and symptomatic disease. This was after most of Israel’s population had been vaccinated.
Although the solution to this rise in cases could seem to be booster shots, biomedical data scientist Dvir Aran has advised people that boosters are not the solution. With two-thirds of the population boosted, a few weeks later there would be another outbreak and more hospitalizations.
Sometimes things marketed to the public under the guise of safety, science, and the common good create more problems and evidently extend into every aspect of one’s life. Ask questions, be critical, and reach for other possible solutions. The example of Israel compels us to ask whether the vaccine is the only path forward or if we should consider other options.